Support for Tories in Ipsos polling hits lowest level for more than 40 years, with Labour 27 points ahead – UK politics live | Politics
Support for Tories in Ipsos polling hits lowest level for more than 40 years, with Labour 27 points ahead
Support for the Conservative party is at its lowest level for more than 40 years, according to polling from Ipsos.
According to its latest monthly political monitor, Labour is on 47% (down 2 points on the previous month), and the Conservatives are on 20% (down seven points).
Ipsos says this is the lowest score that Tories have had since it started this regular poll tracker in 1978.
Here is more on the figures from the Ipsos news release.
Labour 47% (-2 pts), Conservatives 20% (-7), Liberal Democrats 9% (+2), Green 8% (+1), Reform UK 8% (+4), Other 7% (+2). Making Labour’s lead 27 points, up from 22 in January.
The Conservatives’ share of 20% is the lowest ever recorded by Ipsos in our regular political monitor series, which has run since 1978. Previous Conservative low points were 22% under John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, 23% in July 1997, shortly after Labour’s landslide win and 23 per cent in December 2022.
Half (50%) of those with a voting intention say they have definitely decided who to vote for – but 45% may change their mind. There are also signs of a growing enthusiasm gap, with only 62% of Conservatives saying they certain to vote, vs 76% of Labour voters (which feeds through into the headline voting figure) – last month the gap was just 4 points.
It is often said that any poll finding that is particularly newsworthy, because it is striking and unusual, is likely to be wrong. All polls are subject to a margin of error and they are most reliable when considered alongside other polls, as a guide to trends in opinion, rather than in isolation. The Guardian’s opinion poll tracker does not show Tory support collapsing further in January or February.
But the Ipsos polling also suggests Labour is comfortably ahead of the Conservatives on economic policy and on leadership, the two areas seen as crucial for electoral success.
On policy, Ipsos says:
Labour are seen as having the best policies on managing the economy by a margin of 31% to the Conservative score of 23%. In October the parties were neck and neck.
On taxation, Labour are seen as having the best policies over the Conservatives by a margin of 32% to 19%.
40% think Labour have the best policies for people in work, 15% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
43% think Labour have the best policies for public services in general, 11% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
35% think Labour have the best policies for the level of public spending, 16% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
29% think the Conservatives have the best policies for Britain’s businesses, 25% think Labour have the best policies. In September 2021 the Conservatives lead on this by 41% to 17%.
30% think the Conservatives have the best policies for Britain’s financial services sector, also known as the City, 22% think Labour have the best policies.
And on leadership Ipsos says:
19% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as prime minister (-1 from January) and 73% say they are dissatisfied (+7). His net rating of -54 is a record low for Mr Sunak.
Keir Starmer’s ratings have also fallen since January. 29% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader (-1) and 55% are dissatisfied (+7). His net score of -26 is only slightly above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.
Ipsos polled just over 1,000 people between 21 and 28 February.
Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, said:
The historical comparisons continue to look ominous for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. The Ipsos political monitor series started in the late 70s and has never recorded a Conservative vote share this low – and the job satisfaction trends for the prime minister and his government since he took office are also heading downwards.
Combined with Labour taking leads on issues of economic credibility to go with their traditional strengths in public services, this means the Conservatives face big challenges across a number of fronts if they are to turn the situation around.
Key events
Labour will not let a generation of youngsters “go off track”, shadow work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall said in a speech this morning setting out plans to reform opportunities for the under-24s.
She said that along with the help that a Labour government would provide, young people “have a responsibility to take up the work or training that’s on offer”.
Almost 851,000 young people aged 16-24 are not in education, employment or training – an increase of 20,000 in a year.
In her speech Kendall said:
If you can work there’ll be no option of a life on benefits.
Not just because the British people believe rights should go hand-in-hand with responsibilities, but because being unemployed or lacking basic qualifications when you’re young, can harm your job prospects and wages for the rest of your life and this is not good enough for our young people or for our country.
Unlike the Tories, we will not let a generation of young people go off track before they have even begun.
A reader asks:
In by-elections, it’s normal for the returning officer to read out the number of spoilt ballots. This wasn’t done at Rochdale. Do you know how many were spoiled? I would have expected there to be quite a large number, and it would be useful to know if many Labour supporters expressed their views this way, so this could be an important number. But I haven’t been able to find it anywhere.
Rochdale council, which organised the byelection, tells me there were 167 spoilt ballot papers last week.
That figure on its own its pretty meaningless. But the House of Commons library has an invaluable briefing on elections data which says at the last general election 0.36% of all ballot papers were spoilt. This figure has been going up over the past 20 years. In the Rochdale byelection spoilt ballot papes were 0.54% of the total.
Former Tory leader Michael Howard says ‘nobody knows’ if Rwanda policy will work, but there’s ‘good chance’ it will
Michael Howard, the former Conservative party leader, has said that he cannot be sure that the Rwanda policy will work, but that he thinks there is “a good chance” that it will.
Howard sits in the House of Lords, where this afternoon peers will start voting on the safety of Rwanda (asylum and immigration) bill as it starts its report stage.
The bill says officials and courts should consider Rwanda a safe country for deportation purposes, and the government believes that once it becomes law it will be able to send asylum seekers arriving in the UK on small boats to Rwanda, and that this will deter others from making the same journey across the Channel.
In an interview on the Today programme, asked if he thought the bill would stop the boats, Howard said:
I think the whole purpose of the bill is to provide a deterrent. And I think it has a good chance of working.
Asked how he could know that, Howard replied:
Nobody knows it, because it hasn’t been tried yet in this country, but there are examples from other countries …
In Australia a similar system has been proved to be a deterrent. That gives us some reason to believe that this too will be a deterrent.
After all, France from which the people come to cross the Channel, is a perfectly safe country. And if people have the option of staying in France or going to Rwanda, it’s a fair bet that they might choose France.
Support for Tories in Ipsos polling hits lowest level for more than 40 years, with Labour 27 points ahead
Support for the Conservative party is at its lowest level for more than 40 years, according to polling from Ipsos.
According to its latest monthly political monitor, Labour is on 47% (down 2 points on the previous month), and the Conservatives are on 20% (down seven points).
Ipsos says this is the lowest score that Tories have had since it started this regular poll tracker in 1978.
Here is more on the figures from the Ipsos news release.
Labour 47% (-2 pts), Conservatives 20% (-7), Liberal Democrats 9% (+2), Green 8% (+1), Reform UK 8% (+4), Other 7% (+2). Making Labour’s lead 27 points, up from 22 in January.
The Conservatives’ share of 20% is the lowest ever recorded by Ipsos in our regular political monitor series, which has run since 1978. Previous Conservative low points were 22% under John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, 23% in July 1997, shortly after Labour’s landslide win and 23 per cent in December 2022.
Half (50%) of those with a voting intention say they have definitely decided who to vote for – but 45% may change their mind. There are also signs of a growing enthusiasm gap, with only 62% of Conservatives saying they certain to vote, vs 76% of Labour voters (which feeds through into the headline voting figure) – last month the gap was just 4 points.
It is often said that any poll finding that is particularly newsworthy, because it is striking and unusual, is likely to be wrong. All polls are subject to a margin of error and they are most reliable when considered alongside other polls, as a guide to trends in opinion, rather than in isolation. The Guardian’s opinion poll tracker does not show Tory support collapsing further in January or February.
But the Ipsos polling also suggests Labour is comfortably ahead of the Conservatives on economic policy and on leadership, the two areas seen as crucial for electoral success.
On policy, Ipsos says:
Labour are seen as having the best policies on managing the economy by a margin of 31% to the Conservative score of 23%. In October the parties were neck and neck.
On taxation, Labour are seen as having the best policies over the Conservatives by a margin of 32% to 19%.
40% think Labour have the best policies for people in work, 15% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
43% think Labour have the best policies for public services in general, 11% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
35% think Labour have the best policies for the level of public spending, 16% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
29% think the Conservatives have the best policies for Britain’s businesses, 25% think Labour have the best policies. In September 2021 the Conservatives lead on this by 41% to 17%.
30% think the Conservatives have the best policies for Britain’s financial services sector, also known as the City, 22% think Labour have the best policies.
And on leadership Ipsos says:
19% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as prime minister (-1 from January) and 73% say they are dissatisfied (+7). His net rating of -54 is a record low for Mr Sunak.
Keir Starmer’s ratings have also fallen since January. 29% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader (-1) and 55% are dissatisfied (+7). His net score of -26 is only slightly above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.
Ipsos polled just over 1,000 people between 21 and 28 February.
Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, said:
The historical comparisons continue to look ominous for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. The Ipsos political monitor series started in the late 70s and has never recorded a Conservative vote share this low – and the job satisfaction trends for the prime minister and his government since he took office are also heading downwards.
Combined with Labour taking leads on issues of economic credibility to go with their traditional strengths in public services, this means the Conservatives face big challenges across a number of fronts if they are to turn the situation around.
Here are some of the budget stories from today’s papers.
Jeremy Hunt is drafting plans for up to £9 billion worth of tax rises and spending reductions in an effort to balance the books and pay for a potential 2p cut in national insurance …
Hunt is not expected to cut income tax as he focuses instead on further reductions in national insurance, which is only paid by those in work. Cutting national insurance is cheaper than income tax and will allow Hunt the flexibility for further budget announcements.
These will be paid for by a series of “stealth” tax rises amounting to up to £4 billion, along with potential plans to reduce government spending after the next election. They include removing tax breaks from second-home owners who rent out their properties as holiday rentals, reducing the scope of “non-dom” tax relief and extending the levy on the profits of North Sea oil and gas companies.
The chancellor has been looking at an “emergency package” of revenue raisers to pay for personal tax cuts, including stealing Labour’s plan to scale back the “non-dom” tax regime, securing between £2bn and £3bn a year.
Also on Hunt’s list of potential revenue raisers are an increase in air passenger duty for business travel, an extension of the windfall levy on oil and gas producers, a tax on vapes and abolishing the furnished holiday let regime, according to those close to the Budget process.
Hunt could raise a further £5bn to £6bn a year if he cuts public spending plans in the next parliament, a controversial idea which has led to claims from economists that he is funding tax cuts now by making “fictitious” promises about the future.
The chancellor is also planning to use the Budget to insist he can make the state leaner and more efficient: he has already announced plans to cut civil service numbers to their pre-pandemic levels.
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Daniel Martin, Benedict Smith and Luke Barr in the Daily Telegraph say Hunt is considering an increase in business class air fares. They say:
Air passenger duty is split into three categories: a reduced level for economy, a standard level for business class and a higher level for private jets.
For those in business class, the charge is £13 for domestic flights, £26 for up to 2,000 miles, £191 for up to 5,500 miles and £200 over that.
Altogether, it raises £3.8 billion a year, so an increase could potentially bring in hundreds of millions more.
More than 300 migrants arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel on the day a seven-year-old girl died when a boat capsized, PA Media reports. PA says:
Home Office figures show 327 people made the journey in eight boats on Sunday, taking the provisional total for the year so far to 2,582. This suggests an average of around 41 people per boat.
It comes after the French coastguard said the girl who drowned had been trying to cross the Channel with her pregnant mother, her father and three siblings in a boat carrying 16 people.
Another couple, two men and six young children were also on board when the boat got into difficulty in the early hours of the morning off the French coast, the Prefet du Nord said. They were all taken to hospital in Dunkirk.
This chart from the New Economics Foundation shows how households in the richest quintile (20%) gain 12 times as much as households in the poorest quintile.
The chart shows the figures as £2bn compared to £0.2bn, but the £0.2bn has been rounded up from £160m. (See 9.33am.)
And this chart from the NEF shows much much households would benefit from a 1p in the pound cut in national insurance, compared with a £60 per month increase in universal credit, by income vingtile (5%).
Richest households will benefit 12 times more than poorest from national insurance cut, says thinktank
Good morning. On Wednesday Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, will deliver the last budget before the general election. As usual, there’s an expectation management process going on, influencing a lot (but not all) of the pre-budget reporting, but the political backdrop makes it more complicated than usual. The standard approach is to play down expectations in advance, so that when an unexpected tax cut or spending announcement comes out in the last five minutes of the speech, MPs and the media are surprised and impressed, and the coverage takes off on a cloud of positivity. But with the Conservative party still about 20 points behind in the polls (the latest figures are on the Guardian’s poll tracker), No 10 and the Treasury have been talking up the propect of tax cuts for months because that is the only way of holding off a Tory party mutiny. Hunt’s scope for giveaway measures is limited, but on his own side expectations are still high and the best reporting over the weekend and today suggests that 1p in the pound cut, almost certainly to national insurance rather than income tax, is already in the bag, and that a 2p cut might be a possibility.
This morning the New Economics Foundation has published research saying that if Hunt does cut national insurance in this manner, the richest households will benefit 12 times more than the poorest in cash terms. This is not a surprising or controversial assessment; much the same was said when Hunt cut national insurance by 2p in the pound in the autumn statement. But it is a point that has not received much attention in the debate in recent days, partly because Labour does not want to be seen as opposing a possible tax cut that would benefit ordinary workers.
Here is an extract from the NEF’s news release.
If the chancellor announces a 1p cut to national insurance in this week’s budget, it will benefit the richest 20% of households 12 times more than poorest 20%, with those on the highest incomes receiving an additional £424 per year compared to £34 per year for those on the lowest.
It means £2bn of the £4.8bn tax cut will go to the wealthiest, while the poorest will benefit by just £160 million.
At the same time, households in London and the south east will be the biggest winners, gaining £252 per year on average compared with a £175 annual increase for households across the North.
And this is from Sam Tims, a senior economist at the NEF.
Everywhere you look, from our schools to hospitals to high streets, our country is falling apart at the seams while millions of people struggle to get by. Yet at the same time our chancellor is pushing for tax cuts that the country does not want, and that will benefit those who already have the most.
Not only will this reduce government income in the immediate future, but it will also worsen inequality making us all poorer and harming the country’s prospects.
As Richard Partington and Aletha Adu report, new polling from YouGov supports the claim that tax cuts are not a priority for many people.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.30am: Liz Kendall, the shadow work and pensions secretary, gives a speech
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
2.30pm: George Galloway, the new MP for Rochdale, takes his seat in the Commons.
2.30pm: Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
After 3.20pm: Peers begin the report stage of the safety of Rwanda (asylum and immigration) bill.
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